This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

[ilnadi]

we had a zoom party with some highschool buddies, spread out from eastern Turkey to LA. 5 of the 23 on the call were doctors.

the 4 in Turkey all have at least one colleague in ICU, many confirmed patients. They're actually on a worse trajectory than the US. that will become a shit show in short order. the fucking government over there (who keeps about 100k imams on payroll despite not having any place for them to work) announced that doctors who test positive and have to quarantine will not get paid. enough about that

the 5th is a surgeon in Brooklyn. he looked like a zombie. This despite the fact that they are keeping all surgical teams as far away from the covid-19 wards as possible so they can still operate. he said they had one symptomatic patient that tested negative twice before testing positive, so he has no idea what has happened to his ward now.

 

[jmanic]

Markov chain?
1 in 100 if not 1 in 100

They are independent.

 

[rick81721]

Looks like this thread went off the rails today. Anywho, I think this was discussed earlier - a large scale population test for covid antibodies

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antibody-testing-colorado-town-provide-forward/story?id=69856623

 

[Patrick]

They are independent.

I got that q wrong in the 600 level final too.

 

[ilnadi]

when I read this at 4pm yesterday, I thought "he has a point, I don't see those numbers happening".
now, I don't know, check out today's "new" numbers

BTW, I am not posting numbers anymore, only links; shit changes too fast, cannot keep up. If I can automate my table from a data feed I'll post the link.

worldometer now added columns for cases & deaths per 1M so there's our live tracking.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 123,868,982 Cases and 2,727,738 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[serviceguy]

It adds up to more than 100. Why?

Because...

Both die .01 x .01 = .001
One die 2 x .01 x .99 = .0198
None die .99 x .99 = .9801

@Patrick , @jmanic, @Norm...I had to unleash ancient knowledge to come up with this (well, more like 37 years old statistics class from HS) and not even a pat on the back and fu to show for it? BTW I am correct on this, the one die situation is twice the chance that one lives and the other dies (.01 x .99) and not twice the chance that one dies.

 

[rick81721]

worldometer now added columns for cases & deaths per 1M so there's our live tracking.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 123,868,982 Cases and 2,727,738 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

that's always been there

 

[Patrick]

RIP Adam.

 

[rick81721]

Interesting results of UF testing study in the Villages last week. They tested both symptomatic and asymptomatic residents. Results:

900 with symptoms, 23 tested positive - 2.6%. Much lower than statewide testing

1400 without symptoms, 2 tested positive, but on follow up, both developed symptoms and recently traveled.

https://m.ufhealth.org/news/2020/ea...g-villages-encouraging-experts-urge-vigilance

 

[liong71er]

Jiayou Mtbnj...
Jiayou Meiguo...

 

[Mahnken]

Posted from a friend of mine that works in an ICU in North Jersey.

 

[Patrick]

Fired up my pulse oximeter - scared the crap out of myself.

Spoiler: Whew

Oh - it was upside down.....

 

[Paul H]

 

[Carson]

 

[jmanic]

Because...

Both die .01 x .01 = .001
One die 2 x .01 x .99 = .0198
None die .99 x .99 = .9801

@Patrick , @jmanic, @Norm...I had to unleash ancient knowledge to come up with this (well, more like 37 years old statistics class from HS) and not even a pat on the back and fu to show for it? BTW I am correct on this, the one die situation is twice the chance that one lives and the other dies (.01 x .99) and not twice the chance that one dies.

Sorry I missed your contribution Leo,
you get full credit, just please show your work.

 

[Patrick]

Because...

Both die .01 x .01 = .001
One die 2 x .01 x .99 = .0198
None die .99 x .99 = .9801

@Patrick , @jmanic, @Norm...I had to unleash ancient knowledge to come up with this (well, more like 37 years old statistics class from HS) and not even a pat on the back and fu to show for it? BTW I am correct on this, the one die situation is twice the chance that one lives and the other dies (.01 x .99) and not twice the chance that one dies.

don't get too crazy.... ?
https://www.mtbnj.com/forum/threads/coronavirus.48992/post-974018

 

[Paul H]

 

[UtahJoe]

Fired up my pulse oximeter - scared the crap out of myself.

View attachment 123919

Spoiler: Whew

Oh - it was upside down.....
View attachment 123920

lol...my wife took someone out of a car yesterday who could not speak from shortness of breath and was in alot of distress....his blood oxygen was 91...I was like "oh, I guess thats a bad number....91?" She said "ya, but you should have seen the guy I pulled out of a car whose was at 52" She said she ran back inside, immediately got a wheelchair and a re-breather....This was an example of someone who skipped the line and was put on a ventilator asap.


She also said that the ratio of men to women is probably in the neighborhood of 3:1.....She did say many patients are doing better on the rebreather (just the mask with oxygen) as opposed to the ventilator which seemed like some good news....However she also said that the patients that are being put on ventilators are staying on them for a long time and taking a long time to recover...which didnt seem like good news.

Apparently every restaurant in morristown is bringing them....they have more food there than they know what to do with.....She also said every night at 7 all of the neighbors in the surrounding homes and apartments are banging on pots and pans to show their appreciation

 

[serviceguy]

Sorry I missed your contribution Leo,
you get full credit, just please show your work.

What work, I got nothing else! I was just bothering by the numbers not being even, but actually turns out @Patrick had all that done days ago (internet years that is), he just used a bunch of words and a picture which shut down my brain for the time being!

Sorry if I sounded like I was demanding attention, I woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning, and these days that's like being on the wrong side of the planet given the spatial constraints!

 

[serviceguy]

don't get too crazy.... ?
https://www.mtbnj.com/forum/threads/coronavirus.48992/post-974018

Uhm, now I'm not so sure anymore...