Biggest crash in stock market history?

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
I have the same thoughts. That one is an extreme example, but there are a lot of stocks like that right now. You have to totally detach yourself from fundamentals if you are going to buy into them.

Tesla is similar. People that are bullish on that one cite the fact that they are not a car company, but a technology company that builds cars....so you have to buy into the "vision" I suppose. Stock price is hovering around $1000 a share today.....started the year pre-covid at $430.
tesla is shortable now.
 

kidzach

Well-Known Member
good move - when i was playing i would take my original investment off the table, then play the news/momentum.
lock in some gains, and try to find a top, with downside sell orders.

options scare me - always wanted to work them on holdings - never did.

TBH - tsla was my last play - i had brk.b which was pumpin (i consider it a diversified holding) and tsla tanked on the china
shutdown, so i sold brk.b, moved to tsla, it went up 50% and i sold - yeah, i missed a much bigger gain!!! oh well.
i'd rather clean a tough rock garden for my thrill! (mostly cause i suck at both stocks and rocks!)
I'm not an options person either. It just seems everything is pure gamble at the moment. I own what I believe to be safe core holdings at the moment. Was just looking at NKLA for some speculation, going to wait on it. See what happens or move on.
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
The market may stay irrational longer than you may stay solvent?
Perhaps, but I swing trade a bit despite being heavily bearish. I know all too well how far a bear market rally can go. I just feel this will be a multi year, not your average beat market. I said it before, politics can easily push this rally past elections and to new ATH. My issue is the market is no longer organic. Even with crappy mom retail sails and no pullback they can sugarcoat how the earnings are reported to push markets higher. The bigger the bubble the larger the carpet pull.
Like @Patrick mentioned it’s a system designed for the rich, white man and they don’t like to lose money.
 

Santapez

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
Out of all the craziness, Hertz selling half a billion dollars of stock may be the craziest thing out there to me.
 

rick81721

Lothar
Dave - You share a ton of information about you/life/family - much appreciated, much respected.
Are you trading inside your retirement account? (i think you confirmed this awhile back)
Or is this a fun money account which you are pitting yourself against the market?
Or both? Do you have a base amount you don't mess with?

I think what you are saying with your comment is that anyone can win in an up market - you are looking at ways
to win when there is volatility, or bearish attitudes - an I agree that these can be taken advantage of.
can the individual, part-time trader win over time+market returns ? i'm skeptical.

My opinion of what the government is doing: rich people don't like to lose money in large chunks -
that needs to be in the equation. Policy is reactive, not proactive. Always has been.

---

I'm already on record that our money goes in every paycheck for the last 35 years, with another 4 years or so "following the plan."
It is a small percentage of income, but the math is compelling over the long haul, income increases, investment increases.
And TBH, I have no idea what our ROR is over those years, because of job changes, investment bank/brokerage house changes, etc.
I can say it has met expectations.

It is easy to model, just look at a market calc with reinvestment - here is 35 years of sp500 - 10.5% with div reinvestment.
using our rule of 72, that means it doubled every 7 years. I'm comfortable with this number because of the dollar-cost-avg
approach we take. https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ - so that $25/month i invested (saved?) in 1985 has doubled 5x
300 -> 600/1200/2400/4800/9600 - placed in an income fund, it would now will produce ~$50/month without touching the principal.
So not trump, reaganomics!

View attachment 131836
Yes - i know this doesn't count the drag of taxes, because it is in a retirement fund, but delaying is OK.
I can make the argument both ways, since I have no idea what the tax brackets will be like in the future.
I do know that putting it in a retirement fund creates barriers to taking it out - which is good for many people.

For the last 10 years or so: Total Market, Total Intl Market, Income Fund (rather than bond fund - it is corp paper and dividend paying stocks)
Dollar cost averaging, dividend reinvestment, corp match (wife), SEP (me) - it is doing as well as a professionally
managed IRA we hold (which allows for an equity backed loan - which is like a home equity loan, only backed by investments)
I've mentioned this before.

Re-balance every so often - 50/20/30 - might start upping the income % soon.

It is president proof, it is market timing proof, and i don't sit in front of a computer putting in limit orders, or sweating that i'm
the low person on the pole, with nobody left to buy near the limit. i did this for a couple years with some side money,
and there were winners and losers, but it was mostly sideways at the end - it predated the real-time information of the modern trading sw.
Even so, I didn't enjoy the pressure, and doubt i would have done better -

We worked the wages side of the equation harder than the investment income side. (this is an important concept)
The result was more money invested, which lead to more investment income!

My wife is 8 years from having RMDs on retirement accounts, 4 years from SS full retirement age - (at full retirement, SS benefit is not limited
by income - they reduce benefit for earnings above ~$1,500/month before full retirement) - I'm a little farther out, but not much!
I think that lines up nicely with her retirement from the full time job, to do some consulting and enjoy retirement.

We used to do EE bonds way back when they were a thing, through payroll deductions - rolled them tax free into a 529 plan.
We did the ESOP plan - didn't work out great cause it was the ATT/Lucent+whatever those other co were.
When we planned on having a kid, I started a whole life plan (monthly investment) - which i'll dissolve in a couple of years -
it hasn't done as well as the market, but would crush it if i die....probably should have done a 25yr term policy,
and moved the investment portion elsewhere.

your horizon may not be 40 years like ours was. But there is probably 25 years available.
There could be 3 or more corrections, but that means there will be 3 or more good runs.

Consistently adding money is just like training - it pays off on race day.

---

i'll add one more note - We have been very lucky. While we both had to take some extended time off
to take care of family, there were jobs to return to. We haven't had any extended illness, or long-term forced unemployment.
we are also still married - on our first marriage. Nothing has taken us too far off the plan we put in motion
a long time ago. I'm sure this is significant.

This is similar to our story. I don’t get the notion that the market is only for "rich, white people", that's nonsense.

Anywho, what's your latest thinking on SS? I used to be in the wait until full benefit camp but now changing my mind. 10+ years to break even and now is the time to spend more. What will there be to spend on in our later 70s that a few hundred bucks more a month would make any difference? I became eligible for early last month - might wait one more year and then start collecting.
 

Bike N Gear

Shop: Bike N Gear
Shop Keep
This is similar to our story. I don’t get the notion that the market is only for "rich, white people", that's nonsense.

Anywho, what's your latest thinking on SS? I used to be in the wait until full benefit camp but now changing my mind. 10+ years to break even and now is the time to spend more. What will there be to spend on in our later 70s that a few hundred bucks more a month would make any difference? I became eligible for early last month - might wait one more year and then start collecting.

I’m sure some people would say only rich white people can retire comfortably at your age.
 

kidzach

Well-Known Member
Yeah I should clarify. Hertz selling half a billion of stock while in bankruptcy is amazing. People buying it is crazy.
If anyone out there is looking for a used car. Hertz is obviously also selling there fleet
I would assume some decent deals.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
This is similar to our story. I don’t get the notion that the market is only for "rich, white people", that's nonsense.

Anywho, what's your latest thinking on SS? I used to be in the wait until full benefit camp but now changing my mind. 10+ years to break even and now is the time to spend more. What will there be to spend on in our later 70s that a few hundred bucks more a month would make any difference? I became eligible for early last month - might wait one more year and then start collecting.

take it as soon as you can. Unless there is a penalty involved. Like the reduced benefit from earnings.
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
This is similar to our story. I don’t get the notion that the market is only for "rich, white people", that's nonsense.

Anywho, what's your latest thinking on SS? I used to be in the wait until full benefit camp but now changing my mind. 10+ years to break even and now is the time to spend more. What will there be to spend on in our later 70s that a few hundred bucks more a month would make any difference? I became eligible for early last month - might wait one more year and then start collecting.
Supposedly, the earlier you take SS the more you will get on avg in the long run according to the avg death rate. I’m taking mine as soon as I can.
 

Santapez

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
I'm actually surprised you (older) guys haven't spent more time on the SS payout determination. I'm years away so I don't look for myself, but there must be online calculators that take into account your age, average death rates, etc etc.

I always hear different things from people with regards to it, and often it's similar to Dave's comment about "My neighbor said to take it late/early otherwise you miss out, so therefore I'll take it late/early."
 

rick81721

Lothar
I'm actually surprised you (older) guys haven't spent more time on the SS payout determination. I'm years away so I don't look for myself, but there must be online calculators that take into account your age, average death rates, etc etc.

I always hear different things from people with regards to it, and often it's similar to Dave's comment about "My neighbor said to take it late/early otherwise you miss out, so therefore I'll take it late/early."

The calculation is simple - breakeven point is typically about 10 years from full benefit age. It's more a decision of whether you want and/or need more money earlier in retirement or later.
 
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