Dave - You share a ton of information about you/life/family - much appreciated, much respected.
Are you trading inside your retirement account? (i think you confirmed this awhile back)
Or is this a fun money account which you are pitting yourself against the market?
Or both? Do you have a base amount you don't mess with?
I think what you are saying with your comment is that anyone can win in an up market - you are looking at ways
to win when there is volatility, or bearish attitudes - an I agree that these can be taken advantage of.
can the individual, part-time trader win over time+market returns ? i'm skeptical.
My opinion of what the government is doing: rich people don't like to lose money in large chunks -
that needs to be in the equation. Policy is reactive, not proactive. Always has been.
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I'm already on record that our money goes in every paycheck for the last 35 years, with another 4 years or so "following the plan."
It is a
small percentage of income, but the math is compelling over the long haul, income increases, investment increases.
And TBH, I have no idea what our ROR is over those years, because of job changes, investment bank/brokerage house changes, etc.
I can say it has met expectations.
It is easy to model, just look at a market calc with reinvestment - here is 35 years of sp500 - 10.5% with div reinvestment.
using our rule of 72, that means it doubled every 7 years. I'm comfortable with this number because of the dollar-cost-avg
approach we take.
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/ - so that $25/month i invested (saved?) in 1985 has doubled 5x
300 -> 600/1200/2400/4800/9600 - placed in an income fund, it would now will produce ~$50/month without touching the principal.
So not trump, reaganomics!
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Yes - i know this doesn't count the drag of taxes, because it is in a retirement fund, but delaying is OK.
I can make the argument both ways, since I have no idea what the tax brackets will be like in the future.
I do know that putting it in a retirement fund creates barriers to taking it out - which is good for many people.
For the last 10 years or so: Total Market, Total Intl Market, Income Fund (rather than bond fund - it is corp paper and dividend paying stocks)
Dollar cost averaging, dividend reinvestment, corp match (wife), SEP (me) - it is doing as well as a professionally
managed IRA we hold (which allows for an equity backed loan - which is like a home equity loan, only backed by investments)
I've mentioned this before.
Re-balance every so often - 50/20/30 - might start upping the income % soon.
It is president proof, it is market timing proof, and i don't sit in front of a computer putting in limit orders, or sweating that i'm
the low person on the pole, with nobody left to buy near the limit. i did this for a couple years with some side money,
and there were winners and losers, but it was mostly sideways at the end - it predated the real-time information of the modern trading sw.
Even so, I didn't enjoy the pressure, and doubt i would have done better -
We worked the wages side of the equation harder than the investment income side. (this is an important concept)
The result was more money invested, which lead to more investment income!
My wife is 8 years from having RMDs on retirement accounts, 4 years from SS full retirement age - (at full retirement, SS benefit is not limited
by income - they reduce benefit for earnings above ~$1,500/month before full retirement) - I'm a little farther out, but not much!
I think that lines up nicely with her retirement from the full time job, to do some consulting and enjoy retirement.
We used to do EE bonds way back when they were a thing, through payroll deductions - rolled them tax free into a 529 plan.
We did the ESOP plan - didn't work out great cause it was the ATT/Lucent+whatever those other co were.
When we planned on having a kid, I started a whole life plan (monthly investment) - which i'll dissolve in a couple of years -
it hasn't done as well as the market, but would crush it if i die....probably should have done a 25yr term policy,
and moved the investment portion elsewhere.
your horizon may not be 40 years like ours was. But there is probably 25 years available.
There could be 3 or more corrections, but that means there will be 3 or more good runs.
Consistently adding money is just like training - it pays off on race day.
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i'll add one more note - We have been very lucky. While we both had to take some extended time off
to take care of family, there were jobs to return to. We haven't had any extended illness, or long-term forced unemployment.
we are also still married - on our first marriage. Nothing has taken us too far off the plan we put in motion
a long time ago. I'm sure this is significant.