Biggest crash in stock market history?

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
short the crap out of it, it will eventually go to zero.
Obviously no fulltime trader here but I think we will see another 2-3 months of moon shooters with some really fast selloffs that will be immediately bought before a final carpet pull. Bitcoin just retraced perfectly on it’s fib.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Seriously, if the dollar is on it’s way out how do “old schoolers” cover their asses? I mean, I can’t imagine 60% of the population remotely knowing how to buy a crypto.

why would they buy crypto? it isn't like they have their cash in a lockbox and need to convert it into something usable because they
are going to change the color and invalidate any that isn't turned in. (don't laugh, it has a purpose)
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
why would they buy crypto? it isn't like they have their cash in a lockbox and need to convert it into something usable because they
are going to change the color and invalidate any that isn't turned in. (don't laugh, it has a purpose)
I will try to find an article I read but long story short it suggested institutions are buying up Bitcoin now(I know Catherine Wood of Ark Invests buys it in the etfs) and retail investors are buying Eth, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash. I still think gold is getting ready to go much higher again but I think Bitcoin has maybe taken it’s place.
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
OK, so the stock market didn't tank, now the monetary system is going to fail?
🤦
I'm betting on horsepower as the new currency standard.
View attachment 151478
I don’t think I said that. Do I think the dollar will fail? Yes. Completely? Yes. Now? Probably not for years to come. I mean, if you look at a 43 year chart of the US dollar the lower lows and lower highs don’t indicte and increase in value. https://www.macrotrends.net/1329/us-dollar-index-historical-chart
 
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Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
I will try to find an article I read but long story short it suggested institutions are buying up Bitcoin now(I know Catherine Wood of Ark Invests buys it in the etfs) and retail investors are buying Eth, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash. I still think gold is getting ready to go much higher again but I think Bitcoin has maybe taken it’s place.

i think if someone hoards it, it becomes worthless.
as it has no intrinsic value -

and what will happen when mining ends?
then the miners will need to take a piece of the transaction?

scenario - bitcoin is too expensive, let's start a new virtual currency.
we'll get someone famous to tweet it out - you know, advertising,
to drive the price up.
it is already happening.

----

I'm not anti-virtual currency. I'm def pro blockchain tech - it could end counterfeiting (not theft or graft) in many areas.
it just isn't right at the moment.

consider:
last week, a new honda civic cost ₿2 this week it cost ₿1 - what will it be next week, and how does the seller
hedge against collapse?

Are they really buying it, or are they managing buying it, because of FOMO on behalf of their clients?
no doubt the pros will know when to gtfo. (isn't this also a part of your manifesto?)

----

also, i do respect that you are putting the time in, trying to get all the info you can.
I'm being a bit contrarian more based on doubt, the lack of a large base in the game,
and the slow acceptance rate by anyone other than speculators.
 
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Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
i think if someone hoards it, it becomes worthless.
as it has no intrinsic value -

and what will happen when mining ends?
then the miners will need to take a piece of the transaction?

scenario - bitcoin is too expensive, let's start a new virtual currency.
we'll get someone famous to tweet it out - you know, advertising,
to drive the price up.
it is already happening.

----

I'm not anti-virtual currency. I'm def pro blockchain tech - it could end counterfeiting (not theft or graft) in many areas.
it just isn't right at the moment.

consider:
last week, a new honda civic cost ₿2 this week it cost ₿1 - what will it be next week, and how does the seller
hedge against collapse?

Are they really buying it, or are they managing buying it, because of FOMO on behalf of their clients?
no doubt the pros will know when to gtfo. (isn't this also a part of your manifesto?)

----

also, i do respect that you are putting the time in, trying to get all the info you can.
I'm being a bit contrarian more based on doubt, the lack of a large base in the game,
and the slow acceptance rate by anyone other than speculators.
I don’t know. I think the real speculators are in stocks at the moment. Gold is slowly being accumulated but cryptos and precious seem to be the only thing that remains organic.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
PS - i just moved money into tax free municipals.
I'm feeling old, and the stock market seems a bit overheated.
--
the opposite side is that when we come out of this COVID thing, i got a feeling there is going to
be a lot of #YOLO which will drive demand for goods and experiences way up. savings will go down,
debt will go up. so more surge until the pop - and the biggest crash in stock market history happens. (see what i did there)
well by absolute numbers anyway - percentage wise it will be on-par, but will seem horrific because
of the absolute number change. 40% - there i'm on record. 2024. my kid won't be able to get a job coming out of college
a year later. He can move back home and work the land. ;) Keep buying ammo.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
These predictions are silly. The market will do what it has been doing for 100 years - it'll go up, hit a recession, go down, recover, go up even more, repeat.

View attachment 151481

of course it will -

it is 10% above 1 year ago
it is >50% above its 1 year low

by 2027 it is on fire again because all college debt will be forgiven.
and the law suit that claimed there was no warning label not to spend more than you can afford will be settled.
advertising will be outlawed. we will all be issued uniforms.
the currency of the day will be hard to find sneakers (air jordans being the preferred base of trade)
everyone will drive a grey tesla.

i moved 10% of taxable funds into tax free - pulling the dividend each month while in a higher tax bracket.
pay for new bike. which i will pay taxes on.
 
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Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
PS - i just moved money into tax free municipals.
I'm feeling old, and the stock market seems a bit overheated.
--
the opposite side is that when we come out of this COVID thing, i got a feeling there is going to
be a lot of #YOLO which will drive demand for goods and experiences way up. savings will go down,
debt will go up. so more surge until the pop - and the biggest crash in stock market history happens. (see what i did there)
well by absolute numbers anyway - percentage wise it will be on-par, but will seem horrific because
of the absolute number change. 40% - there i'm on record. 2024. my kid won't be able to get a job coming out of college
a year later. He can move back home and work the land. ;) Keep buying ammo.
We kinda sorta are coming out of the pandemic now. Slowly but surely. See what I did there?
 

Dave Taylor

Rex kwan Do
of course it will -

it is 10% above 1 year ago
it is 50% above its 1 year low

by 2027 it is on fire again because all college debt will be forgiven.
and the law suit that claimed there was no warning label not to spend more than you can afford will be settled.
advertising will be outlawed. we will all be issued uniforms.
the currency of the day will be hard to find sneakers (air jordans being the preferred base of trade)
Eould it be up 10% if the fed didn’t add a gatrillion dollars? Just curious, what are your thoughts on what will happene with real estate? I think that is a huge bubble now on the retail side and the renters/property owners are long term fugged. How does an apartment owner pay his debt down when renters can’t be evicted and you can’t chase after the money? California is gonna get ugly in that area fast. Basicaly, shithead renters don’t have any obligation to pay or pay back rent, can’t be evicyed and you really can’t sell an occupied apartment building.
 
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Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Eould it be up 10% if the fed didn’t add a gatrillion dollars? Just curious, what are your thoughts on what will happene with real estate? I think that is a huge bubble now on the retail side and the renters/property owners are long term fugged. How does an apartment owner pay his debt down when renters can’t be evicted and you can’t chase after the money? California is gonna get ugly in that area fast. Basicaly, shithead renters don’t have any obligation to pay or pay back rent, can’t be evicyed and you really can’t sell an occupied apartment building.

the situation dictates monetary policy, not the other way around.

unpaid rent will become a deduction going forward making future income untaxed
people that own apartment buildings are not living paycheck-to-paycheck. they'll weather the storm just fine.

commercial real estate may be screwed as the remote workforce is getting productivity dialed-in.
 
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pkovo

Well-Known Member
April/May...it’s coming, the end is near...get your bitcoin while it’s hot.
What's the catalyst that drives the market down in April/May? Serious question. The market has continuously been shrugging off bad news and climbing higher, what is expected to happen in the spring to put a stop to that?
 
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