This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

mfennell

Well-Known Member
Fake news.
You can't just throw that down. Provide a source to support your claim.
Four weeks on, reopening does not seem to have led to a significant rebound of the economy. The state’s unemployment rate climbed this week to nearly 12% — higher than during the Great Recession.
Source

This is no surprise. Every major tech and financial company is telling people to stay home. Those same people are not going to run out to the bar just because their governor declares the state OPEN. IMHO, the drag of some level of steady cases from the additional personal interactions is going to, ultimately, drag the financial pain out longer as those major companies continue to hold back.

Brazil is behind the rest of the world but new cases/deaths already declining.

The 7 day average has been in decline for three days. I'm not so sure victory laps are in order quite yet. Source
 
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Paul H

Fearless OOS Poser
You can't just throw that down. Provide a source to support your claim.
Source

This is no surprise. Every major tech and financial company is telling people to stay home. Those same people are not going to run out to the bar just because their governor declares the state OPEN. IMHO, the drag of some level of steady cases from the additional personal interactions is going to, ultimately, drag the financial pain out longer as those major companies continue to hold back.



The 7 day average has been in decline for three days. I'm not so sure victory laps are in order quite yet. Source
I think they (fake news media) said that 65% of Americans do not feel safe and will stay home regardless of the state opening up.
With this Kawasaki crap, tho rare, I certainly do not feel comfortable.
 

rick81721

Lothar
You can't just throw that down. Provide a source to support your claim.
Source

This is no surprise. Every major tech and financial company is telling people to stay home. Those same people are not going to run out to the bar just because their governor declares the state OPEN. IMHO, the drag of some level of steady cases from the additional personal interactions is going to, ultimately, drag the financial pain out longer as those major companies continue to hold back.

The claim was "people are not going out in Georgia". Employment will be a lagging indicator of that.. I can tell you that in Florida as soon as restaurants reopened in reduced capacity people started going out.. And your source is unemployment for April - FYI Georgia first started reopening April 24. Swing and a miss!
 
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stb222

Love Drunk
Jerk Squad
So to add to the misinformation, I had foods poisoning or a stomach virus starting last Wednesday at 10:30 PM, by 3:30 am, I was short of breath, legs cramping bad, couldn't walk more than 10' and I had to call an ambulance. My blood pressure was 70/50. ER diagnosis was unspecified.

Two days later a relative( which I had no contact even remotely) had very similar systems and took a trip to the ER as well.

c6ad0289edc664a21a8109e5a405902e.530x700x2.gif
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
So to add to the misinformation, I had foods poisoning or a stomach virus starting last Wednesday at 10:30 PM, by 3:30 am, I was short of breath, legs cramping bad, couldn't walk more than 10' and I had to call an ambulance. My blood pressure was 70/50. ER diagnosis was unspecified.

Two days later a relative( which I had no contact even remotely) had very similar systems and took a trip to the ER as well.

c6ad0289edc664a21a8109e5a405902e.530x700x2.gif

Do you eat mushrooms?
Or drink hippie tea?
deathberries?

ps - glad you are ok. strength back?
---

In other news - it is certainly end-of-times.


disease, locust, flooding, earthquakes, I got a saddle sore (hey, it is one of the 7 signs)
if there is a record red tide, we are in trouble.

This all started happening when they opened the LHC and started messing with God Particles.
(i'm sending this to Hannity)

-
can't use a trailing average over a 3 day weekend. reporting bias.
I may change my spreadsheet averages to 7 day trailing, previous 7 day trailing, and 21 day trailing.
this may help smooth out the cycles - the 3 & 5 day isn't working anymore, as we take a longer term view.
 

rick81721

Lothar
I think they (fake news media) said that 65% of Americans do not feel safe and will stay home regardless of the state opening up.
With this Kawasaki crap, tho rare, I certainly do not feel comfortable.

You really worried about Kawasaki now? Have any kids 5 or under? And even if you did, this is extremely rare and treatable. It may be associated with covid, it may not. But here's my question - according to CDC in an average year there should be 1500 cases of KD in the US by June 1. In 2016, there were over 2500 by June. So how many cases have there been this year? Wouldn't that be an obvious question for the media to ask and report on when they are publishing these scary stories? Why can't I find the answer to that question??
 

mfennell

Well-Known Member
The claim was "people are not going out in Georgia". Employment will be a lagging indicator of that.. I can tell you that in Florida as soon as restaurants reopened in reduced capacity people started going out.. And your source is unemployment for April - FYI Georgia first started reopening April 24. Swing and a miss!
So your source is ... anecdote? From Florida?

My anecdote is that my mom lives in a retirement community in Clermont, FL and they're not going out. Every evening they sit out in her driveway (it gets the best shade, apparently) 6' apart and chat.

It was pretty clear that he meant "(many) people are not going out". I think the data will bear that out, especially in larger cities filled with businesses that can support WFH.
 

Paul H

Fearless OOS Poser
You really worried about Kawasaki now? Have any kids 5 or under? And even if you did, this is extremely rare and treatable. It may be associated with covid, it may not. But here's my question - according to CDC in an average year there should be 1500 cases of KD in the US by June 1. In 2016, there were over 2500 by June. So how many cases have there been this year? Wouldn't that be an obvious question for the media to ask and report on when they are publishing these scary stories? Why can't I find the answer to that question??
I guess im just an over protective parent
But it does seem to me... they know much less than i would have thought. Yeah... i know... novel virus....
 

rick81721

Lothar
It was pretty clear that he meant "(many) people are not going out". I think the data will bear that out, especially in larger cities filled with businesses that can support WFH.

First off, I know Paul so most of this is just ball busting. I don't know you from Adam. Second, he said people aren't going out - that sounds absolute to me. Obviously not everyone will immediately go out - some will, some won't. What's the definition of "many"? You could interpret that any way. It will be a gradual process - the larger point is more people are going out than before the lockdowns and new cases/deaths are not rising.
 

Paul H

Fearless OOS Poser
So your source is ... anecdote? From Florida?

My anecdote is that my mom lives in a retirement community in Clermont, FL and they're not going out. Every evening they sit out in her driveway (it gets the best shade, apparently) 6' apart and chat.

It was pretty clear that he meant "(many) people are not going out". I think the data will bear that out, especially in larger cities filled with businesses that can support WFH.
Yes.. and i didnt think it would be taken so literally. But yeah... ppl are out... parks beaches and etc. All outdoor activities which they say will incurr less chance of spread. The real test is indoor in close proximity like office space, retail stores, the hair salons and etc.
 

Paul H

Fearless OOS Poser
First off, I know Paul so most of this is just ball busting. I don't know you from Adam. Second, he said people aren't going out - that sounds absolute to me. Obviously not everyone will immediately go out - some will, some won't. What's the definition of "many"? You could interpret that any way. It will be a gradual process - the larger point is more people are going out than before the lockdowns and new cases/deaths are not rising.
unnamed.jpg
 

rick81721

Lothar
Yes.. and i didnt think it would be taken so literally. But yeah... ppl are out... parks beaches and etc. All outdoor activities which they say will incurr less chance of spread. The real test is indoor in close proximity like office space, retail stores, the hair salons and etc.

If I get covid, today at 6mr will be where I got it! ?
 

Mahnken

Well-Known Member
This is the best description I've found regarding the Kawasaki symptoms (copied from the interwebs):

EPIDEMIOLOGY OF PIMS

On April 27 the UK put out an alert: a rising number of cases of children were requiring intensive care with marked inflammation of multiple organ systems, most of whom had tested positive for either the virus or antibodies to it. Since then, over 100 children in the US have been diagnosed, the majority in New York, in at least 10 states, with cases recognized elsewhere in Europe as well.

A 14 year old boy in England has died, and three children in New York have died as of today (5/10/20).

Of the first 8 British cases reported in the Lancet (1), 6 were of African decent, 1 was South Asian, and 1 was Middle Eastern; ages were 4-14. None were Caucasian, which is of course the largest population group in the UK. Race-specific numbers in the US have not been released.

PIMS is now a reportable disease in New York State (2): any suspected case must be immediately tested for COVID-19 (including serology), isolated, and reported into the state emergency health system.

A CYTOKINE TEMPEST IN A TEACUP

PIMS is, in a nutshell, runaway systemic inflammation. It's a cytokine "tempest in a teacup": a storm, raging in a child-sized body. It can result in vascular collapse, where a child can no longer maintain an adequate blood pressure. And it involves inflammation of many different organs- including the heart.

The symptoms- especially the cardiac inflammation- are very similar to a mysterious (but common) entity called Kawasaki Disease. The cause of Kawasaki's is still unknown, but it occurs exclusively in children, and causes inflammation in the medium-sized arteries throughout the body (including the coronary arteries of the heart, which can dilate out- become aneurysms- and kill the child). A "post-viral" response has ALWAYS been floated as the ultimate underlying cause for Kawasaki's, so perhaps we're just now proving that.

Some children with post-COVID PIMS look exactly like Kawasaki's, down to the "strawberry tongue" and red, cracked lips we all memorize as classic features in medical school. Perhaps indeed they are Kawasaki's. Some present with GI inflammation (so, crampy pain and diarrhea). Some present in a state of shock/collapse (so, like Toxic Shock Syndrome, with a coagulopathy to boot). Very few show features of lung inflammation- quite different from adults.

And many do develop the feared complication of a compromised heart: very low cardiac output, very low ejection fraction on echocardiography (meaning, the heart is squeezing out very little blood each time it beats), and some show the aneurysms.

WHAT'S SARS-CoV-2 HAVE TO DO WITH IT?

The full name of the disorder is "P(a)ediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome temporally associated with COVID-19." Children- to be very clear- still do VERY well with COVID-19, compared to adults. Children- under the age of 15 or so- still function EPIDEMIOLOGICALLY very differently from older people (mostly viral "dead ends.") But a small subset, once infected, will mount a pathologically overactive immune response.

This can occur while actively infected-- so, a PCR test for virus will be positive-- or it can occur post-infection, when a serology test will be positive. In the latter case, it's perhaps that the immune system has been "primed"-- raring to go, cruising for a bruising, eager for battle-- and decides to attack the body as opposed to the virus.

Or perhaps viral antigens hang around in a child's tissues (even if active infectious virus isn't still replicating) and the immune system, chock full o'antibodies, recognizes the target and attacks.

It might be too- in hotspots- that upon RE-EXPOSURE to the virus, the immune response is disproportional. Say a child had the virus, fought it off, had a mild case, and recovered. Now they come into contact with it again (in an area with high prevalence and lots of infected people)-- NOW it's ready to go.

CAN IT BE TREATED?

Yes! Shock is shock, and is treated with supportive ICU care. The same drugs given to suppress adult cytokine storms with COVID-19 are given to children with PIMS. Most do well, with supportive care (3).

EVERYTHING IS EVOLVING

It's a new virus. Is this something coronaviruses do? SARS and MERS infected very few people- and even fewer children-- so who knows if they would have caused similar problems-- but there is a report of Kawasaki's and a coronavirus from 2005 (4). What about genetics? This wasn't reported in China, but what was true in the Chinese population might not be true in populations of different ethnic and genetic backgrounds. As the virus whirls around the globe, it will continue to teach us- and give up its secrets.

SOURCES

1) Shelley Riphagen, Xabier Gomez, Carmen Gonzalez-Martinez, Nick Wilkinson, Paraskevi Theocharis. Hyperinflammatory shock in children during COVID-19 pandemic. Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/ S0140-6736(20)31094-1

2) NYC guidelines:

3) Full case definition from the NHS, with treatment:

4) Frank Esper, Eugene D Shapiro, Carla Weibel, David Ferguson, Marie L Landry, Jeffrey S Kahn. Association Between a Novel Human Coronavirus and Kawasaki Disease. Infect Dis 2005 Feb 15;191(4):499-502.
Image: Getty Images
 
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