Bike supply chain - pre pandemic vs now
- Thread starter rick81721
- Start date
Some things I have heard from people who I trust in the bike industry:
It now costs a bike builder more $ to ship an oem tire to the USA than it costs to purchase that tire..
Shimano is making 2.5x the parts they made in 2019. If they accepted and produced all the orders they have received they would be making 10X+ the amount of parts they made in 2019. This would also create a glut that would take years to fix.
With only a tiny exception, shops can NOT order any bikes for 2022. We either have them on order or we must wait for 2023. In my case, we have plenty on order. In many cases these orders were not of our on choosing, but rather bikes that were allocated to us. Luckily these allocations were based on historical orders.
It now costs a bike builder more $ to ship an oem tire to the USA than it costs to purchase that tire..
Shimano is making 2.5x the parts they made in 2019. If they accepted and produced all the orders they have received they would be making 10X+ the amount of parts they made in 2019. This would also create a glut that would take years to fix.
With only a tiny exception, shops can NOT order any bikes for 2022. We either have them on order or we must wait for 2023. In my case, we have plenty on order. In many cases these orders were not of our on choosing, but rather bikes that were allocated to us. Luckily these allocations were based on historical orders.
A year ago I was entering Spring without a single new bike to sell. If you look at my shop now, it is packed with bikes and looks like "normal." However, the bikes I have in inventory are what was available, not the product mix I would normally have. When Jamis calls and says they have 20 bikes, I just take them, because if I don't, the next shop will. For this privilege we no longer get dating and must pay within 30 days in order to get freight.
Searching for parts will suck again this season. I should print that article out and give it to my customers who have no idea about the supply issues.
Searching for parts will suck again this season. I should print that article out and give it to my customers who have no idea about the supply issues.
mfennell
Well-Known Member
It may be too early to tell but are you guys (@jdog and @Bike N Gear) seeing any new bike demand softening? Nice days at the parks are crowded but it is nothing like this time last year. My fearless, out of my butt prediction is that demand will slacken on cheaper bikes (all the kids are going back to hockey or whatever) but there's still some pent-up demand for high end stuff.
Shrewsbury Bicycles actually had a sale recently on beach cruisers. "E-bikes NOT included"
Shrewsbury Bicycles actually had a sale recently on beach cruisers. "E-bikes NOT included"
Demand has definitely softened for new bikes. We no longer get non stop calls for bikes. And, like you say people have choices of what to do with their spare time now. Need a good lockdown to build up demand again.
We are still seeing a solid demand and limited supply of road bikes. Much of the demand has shifted to gravel but the demand is still real.
We deal with a lot of brands and we hold a wait list that really works. Typically as bikes dribble in we already have customers who are on our wait list. 23' won't be the end of this. When / if covid retracts, my assumption is that travel will really pick up but many people who are truly scared of covid will come out of the woodwork and start riding. At least i hope. The real question is: How many people who now work from home will never go back to the office. This deeply impacts the amount of free time people have for recreation of any kind.
Was this on a presentation at Pivot? 😂
Nope
There is another wrinkle in all of this...the health of the dealers.
I just got off the phone with my sales rep (he called me during dinner) offering me a bunch of $1800 dual suspension models, $1850 hardtails, and some road bikes. Dealers had pre-ordered them, and they were allocated to them....but the dealers are getting caught up in credit jail, and rather than lose the bikes to other territories, the rep offers them to us.
Had a gravel and road bike dropped off last week by another rep...dealer was behind on bills, he picked up bikes and brought them to us. I'll take medium and large road and gravel bikes all day long!
Also, dealers that had all their eggs in 1 basket (meaning had a huge amount of their floor dedicated to 1 brand) can easily get SCREWED! We do 3 majors (and some niche stuff)...worked out great...When brand G and T had nothing, it seemed like Brand C had stuff to ship. When C ran out, T ended up having stuff to ship, then G, and the merry go round keeps going.
Having a good backorder list has helped, we have some stuff going out as far as December 2023...and those dates may get moved again. Been hoarding parts since this all started. Same with bikes...Keep re-investing and stay ahead of the bills, the little bit that will be available will find its way to you...
I am just still amazed in the customers who come in stating they have been looking since last summer, we show them exactly what they asked for (or almost the same thing) that we have...and they say they need to think about it! Come back 2 weeks later and are pissed it is sold, and shocked we can't "just order me another one"! The inability to make an adult decision still amazes us...
I just got off the phone with my sales rep (he called me during dinner) offering me a bunch of $1800 dual suspension models, $1850 hardtails, and some road bikes. Dealers had pre-ordered them, and they were allocated to them....but the dealers are getting caught up in credit jail, and rather than lose the bikes to other territories, the rep offers them to us.
Had a gravel and road bike dropped off last week by another rep...dealer was behind on bills, he picked up bikes and brought them to us. I'll take medium and large road and gravel bikes all day long!
Also, dealers that had all their eggs in 1 basket (meaning had a huge amount of their floor dedicated to 1 brand) can easily get SCREWED! We do 3 majors (and some niche stuff)...worked out great...When brand G and T had nothing, it seemed like Brand C had stuff to ship. When C ran out, T ended up having stuff to ship, then G, and the merry go round keeps going.
Having a good backorder list has helped, we have some stuff going out as far as December 2023...and those dates may get moved again. Been hoarding parts since this all started. Same with bikes...Keep re-investing and stay ahead of the bills, the little bit that will be available will find its way to you...
I am just still amazed in the customers who come in stating they have been looking since last summer, we show them exactly what they asked for (or almost the same thing) that we have...and they say they need to think about it! Come back 2 weeks later and are pissed it is sold, and shocked we can't "just order me another one"! The inability to make an adult decision still amazes us...
mfennell
Well-Known Member
Follow up on this thread: I was at Shrewsbury Cycles yesterday evening and they are packed with bikes. Lots of low to-mid-end MTBs. Come to think of it, I just realized most had kickstands, so lower end? I don't know anything about Giants. A couple guys were moving bikes back into the showroom for a solid 20 minutes and still weren't done when I left. It was getting difficult to walk around the store.
Props to the well-equipped service department there, with the equipment to cut/threadroll new spokes. Hell, they have a lathe. Don't see that every day.
Props to the well-equipped service department there, with the equipment to cut/
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Ian F
Well-Known Member
I've heard of a few shops buying spoke thread rollers after getting annoyed with having to keep spokes in stock. Probably works well on blank stainless steel spokes. Not sure how well it works on the black anodized spokes. I had a threading tool years ago, but sold it once I realized I was never going to build wheels often enough to get good at it.
Pretty sure it works fine as it's rolling the threads not cutting them.
WTF do bike shops do with a lathe though?
It seems bike shops are taking what they can get. So shops may be full of bikes but not great bikes. Walking around Summit the other day we stopped into Hilltop and the guy there was saying they have all the low-end and high-end mountain bikes they can get but impossible to get the mid-range that everyone wants.
don
Well-Known Member
Rob has done a really great job there and with Jeff, Brian, and I'm not sure the last main guy's name the service has been solid! I brought a steel DJ frame to them a few years ago that the powder coater snotted the threads up when prepping with media and Brian got them dialed after a lot of hard work.
I feel like Shrewsbury has always been a high volume shop so maybe they had some buying power?
I thought spoke cutters cut and roll threads in one movement?
And what don't you do with a lathe 😉 Alex from Shore Cycles has one too and has made things like special bolts for custom builds. I think Rob keeps a small MIG box in the back for certain repairs.
mfennell
Well-Known Member
I was thinking the biggest problem with the lathe is the time it takes to do things vs what you can charge a customer but I've never actually used a metal lathe so I don't know what I don't know.
I really wanted to watch the spoke operation but I know I'm already more annoying than the average customer.
That was my thought. If your customer comes in with some janky 90's bike with a broken pivot bolt that's specific to that manufacturer/frame it ain't worth the time/expense to make a new bolt on a lathe.
Ian F
Well-Known Member
I know what you mean. I haven't been to Wissahickon Cyclery in a number of years, but these days I'm not sure Drew even keeps the shop open and just stays in the back playing hermit with his CNC mills and occasionally welding up an Engin frame. When he finally gets around to making ti cranks, I'll probably pick up my set in person. Might even install them there... so we can both joke about how the cranks cost more than the frame (Chameleon).