What we can see?
there was no flu last year,
one, or some combination or countermeasures worked against the flu
does it apply? i dunno, gotta think it does. if we didn't do anything, we wouldn't have slowed the spread so hospitals could catch up.
they did.
The virus came in waves as we changed behaviour (or didn't change) by region.
it did not seem seasonal - it seemed behavioural. mostly hinging on the 4th of july,
with "let's test this and try normal" -
it might be easier to look at places with low spread and see what they are doing,
vs the gulf states,
no big experiment,
after the first wave, NJ mortality rate is very low.
one end of the spectrum is the Dakota's - they basically said bring it,
20% of the pop tested positive, and now they are in some steady state of a few hundred a day
with a couple people dead/day, kinda looks like the flu now.
not sure of their vax rate
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does getting vaxed bring the transmissivity below 1?
I think the answer is yes. that means the rate (infections per day) will decay, even if some are unknowing carrieres.
Hence, the peeps that can't do vax are more protected, with the side effect of helping the people that won't.
I'm good with that,
so unvaxed kids have a Tx rate greater than 1? probably (?). and they are in a position to spread it.
is the risk of being vax'd vs (change in risk of becoming severely ill + change in rate of spread) worth it?
good Q. If im convinced "my" healthy kid is protecting an at-risk kid, we are sharing the risk.
same reason I got the vaccine.