This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Attack the points, not the person
This is how we move forward rather than shutting down.

discourse forces each to sharpen their pencil. Insults only shut down discourse
 
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mfennell

Well-Known Member
Forgot to mention my cycling social distancing experience from my ride in western NJ 2 days ago. Encountered two large groups of roadies - at least 15 each. First group was older, I'd say 60s-70s. They were all spaced by about 6 ft. Enough outside for a long ride? I don't think so. Anywho, second group was younger, probably 30s-40s. They weren't drafting but were very close to each other.
I've been riding with my friends a few times a week for a month. Primarily with 4 other guys who are very local to me, occasionally with our normal-times crew that includes 5 or 6 others. They are the only non-family members I interact with. We always draft. Because fast.

AFAIK, the pilot in the group and Dave Taylor (who I've only ridden with a handful of times) are the only ones actually physically going to work. The risk seems reasonable.
 

Mahnken

Well-Known Member
I've been riding with my friends a few times a week for a month. Primarily with 4 other guys who are very local to me, occasionally with our normal-times crew that includes 5 or 6 others. They are the only non-family members I interact with. We always draft. Because fast.

AFAIK, the pilot in the group and Dave Taylor (who I've only ridden with a handful of times) are the only ones actually physically going to work. The risk seems reasonable.
I've only ridden with a couple guys from work. They're so slow that I'm never not leading, lol.
You can see them behind me in this picture:
IMG_20200712_071913~2.jpg

There was a group of at least 20 at white clay yesterday, not a mask to be seen. That I don't understand.
 

Monkey Soup

Angry Wanker
Okay, here it comes.

Your theory about C19 deaths being overcounted needs some support, which I had asked you for above. Did you think I forgot? Meanwhile, I had linked two academic studies that concluded C19 deaths were probably undercounted. One was by scientists from Yale and VCU. I will take a wild ass guess here and bet your study, which is not yet posted in this thread, is from a scientist from tRUMP university.

All I saw (because I’m not going back through this entire thread) is a National Geographic study and a Columbia study that wasn’t peer reviewed. My examples of over counting are purely anecdotal, through personal 1st hand experience (not the internet), and over 30yrs in the pharma biz. Oh, I also used to be a virologist, so listening to a lot of the bullshit here is especially painful. During normal times, most diseases are undercounted. During a normal flu season, do you think every person who’s sick goes to the Dr to be counted? Do you think every death is counted? I have personal examples there also, but since it’s not linked to some online study, they don’t count. In the corona world though, everyone with a sniffle goes to get that super accurate (sarcasm) antibody test. Nothing about corona that you find or read is accurate or non-biased anymore. The media has a vested interest to overhype this, politicians have politicized it, and if you bother to dig deep enough to find the real science, much of it is inconclusive because it’s still early days. Like every other thing in this new enlightened age of information, you’ll find something online that supports your personal position, right or wrong. Have fun believing everything.
 

serviceguy

Well-Known Member
It's increasingly difficult to make sense of all these numbers, probably not a coincidence. More tests, more positive, more hospitalizations (I hear that this count on the rise includes hospitalization for 'elective' procedure where they have been resumed, hard fact to support this anyone) and less or flat deaths (I also hear that doctors are forced to report as COVID-19 all deaths of positive patients regardless actual cause of death, again I'd like some hard facts to back up this)?

What I know for a fact is that Italy's P.M. wants to extend emergency status up to the end of the year while there are a total of 66 ICU patients in the whole country (source=my mom). Not sure what originated this thing, but sure as hell everyone is trying to milk the hell of their political agenda out of it! What a disgrace.
 

thegock

Well-Known Member
1% of the entire population? Shouldn't it be 1% of the infected? If so, these numbers are way off.

According to their data, the COVID-19 infection-fatality rate is 1.46 percent

From #4,842 above^^^^^^^^^^^

If 55%-80% of the population is infected and the midpoint of that range is used the product is 0.98%.
 

thegock

Well-Known Member
All I saw (because I’m not going back through this entire thread) is a National Geographic study and a Columbia study that wasn’t peer reviewed. My examples of over counting are purely anecdotal, through personal 1st hand experience (not the internet), and over 30yrs in the pharma biz. Oh, I also used to be a virologist, so listening to a lot of the bullshit here is especially painful.

Have fun believing everything.


Here is the second study that @mfennell had posted above.

I discussed this at the time with Dr. Joe, (microbiology) and he agreed that the information inferred that the death count was understated.

What is your PhD in @Monkey Soup ?
 

stb222

Love Drunk
Jerk Squad
What is your PhD in @Monkey Soup ?
tumblr_p3n3osjkKA1qe74klo5_r2_540.gif
 

Monkey Soup

Angry Wanker

Here is the second study that @mfennell had posted above.

I discussed this at the time with Dr. Joe, (microbiology) and he agreed that the information inferred that the death count was understated.

What is your PhD in @Monkey Soup ?

Biochemistry with an emphasis on Microbiology. What, am I defending a thesis here?
 

mfennell

Well-Known Member
I have personal examples there also, but since it’s not linked to some online study, they don’t count. In the corona world though, everyone with a sniffle goes to get that super accurate (sarcasm) antibody test.
That's just flat out false. A lot of people died at home and untested, especially at the height of things when tests were not available. A heard an interview with an EMT in NYC who coded THIRTEEN at home people in one double shift. He admitted he was relieved that one of them was a suicide because that was so much less stressful.

Look at the link @thegock posted. Deaths over time are surprisingly consistent year to year, as I'm sure you're aware. The past few months, a lot more people have been dying than expected. That number is greater than the official COVID death count. So either a lot more people than normal are dying from other causes in the past few months OR COVID deaths are undercounted. I know where I'm putting my money.

During March 11–May 2, 2020, a total of 32,107 deaths were reported to DOHMH; of these deaths, 24,172 (95% confidence interval = 22,980–25,364) were found to be in excess of the seasonal expected baseline. Included in the 24,172 deaths were 13,831 (57%) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths and 5,048 (21%) probable COVID-19–associated deaths, leaving 5,293 (22%) excess deaths that were not identified as either laboratory-confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths (Figure).

The 5,293 excess deaths not identified as confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths might have been directly or indirectly attributable to the pandemic. The percentages of these excess deaths that occurred in persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 or resulted from indirect impacts of the pandemic are unknown and require further investigation.
. Source.
 
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