This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

rick81721

Lothar
What we can see?

there was no flu last year,
one, or some combination or countermeasures worked against the flu
does it apply? i dunno, gotta think it does. if we didn't do anything, we wouldn't have slowed the spread so hospitals could catch up.
they did.

The virus came in waves as we changed behaviour (or didn't change) by region.
it did not seem seasonal - it seemed behavioural. mostly hinging on the 4th of july,
with "let's test this and try normal" -

it might be easier to look at places with low spread and see what they are doing,
vs the gulf states,
no big experiment,

after the first wave, NJ mortality rate is very low.

one end of the spectrum is the Dakota's - they basically said bring it,
20% of the pop tested positive, and now they are in some steady state of a few hundred a day
with a couple people dead/day, kinda looks like the flu now.
not sure of their vax rate

----------------------------------

does getting vaxed bring the transmissivity below 1?
I think the answer is yes. that means the rate (infections per day) will decay, even if some are unknowing carrieres.
Hence, the peeps that can't do vax are more protected, with the side effect of helping the people that won't.
I'm good with that,

so unvaxed kids have a Tx rate greater than 1? probably (?). and they are in a position to spread it.
is the risk of being vax'd vs (change in risk of becoming severely ill + change in rate of spread) worth it?

good Q. If im convinced "my" healthy kid is protecting an at-risk kid, we are sharing the risk.
same reason I got the vaccine.

No clue why you think July 4 was significant. These are the wave peaks for the US: mid-march 2020, mid-July 2020, early-jan 2021, mid-april 2021, end-sept 2021. And now we are going up again. I would guess the next wave peaks in Jan again.

Re: transmission, vaccination doesn't seem to be having a big impact - especially when we look at countries with very high vaccination rates and seeing peaks close to their highest of the pandemic. It's basically like the flu now - it will peak and ebb - if you want to be protected, get vaccinated and boosters every 6 months.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
No clue why you think July 4 was significant. These are the wave peaks for the US: mid-march 2020, mid-July 2020, early-jan 2021, mid-april 2021, end-sept 2021. And now we are going up again. I would guess the next wave peaks in Jan again.

Re: transmission, vaccination doesn't seem to be having a big impact - especially when we look at countries with very high vaccination rates and seeing peaks close to their highest of the pandemic. It's basically like the flu now - it will peak and ebb - if you want to be protected, get vaccinated and boosters every 6 months.
It is regional. So I claim behavioural differences.
 

Paul H

Fearless OOS Poser
Anyone know where I can get a modern booster now or in the next couple of days?
As @rick81721 mentioned... I cant seem to find an appointment any time soon
 

roc

Well-Known Member
My healthy 12 year old nephew had covid 3 months ago. He still gets fatigued really easily, finds it hard to keep attention in school, and has been falling asleep in school and at home in the middle of the day. Before covid he was extremely active and focused. Hopefully he gets past it all perfectly fine, but I think I'd trust the vaccine over what covid could potentially do to my kids.
Agreed, my son has a friend, 16 and in awesome shape, lax and soccer player. COVID has hit him hard, he’s on the mend, but it’s been months.
 

Santapez

Well-Known Member
Team MTBNJ Halter's
So I've wondered why they haven't reformulated the mRNA vaccines for these new variants.

But then last night I was reading Pfizer is planning on a new formula based on Omicron and may have it available in 100 days.
 

rick81721

Lothar
So I've wondered why they haven't reformulated the mRNA vaccines for these new variants.

But then last night I was reading Pfizer is planning on a new formula based on Omicron and may have it available in 100 days.

The advantage of these vaccines is as soon as they have the genetic sequence to the new spike protein, they can ramp up and crank them out quickly.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
Eventually we'll get to variant Omega and then....

p170977_p_v7_ae.jpg

or if you are a bit older

image.jpeg

with all respect to Vincent Price of course.
 

thegock

Well-Known Member
Here is a snippet from the weekend edition of the WSJ regarding molnupiravir, which got lost in the Omicron news of the week:

“The FDA said it is still conducting its review of molnupiravir, after the companies told the agency earlier this week the pill was 30% effective in a final analysis of the late-stage study results. After taking an early look at results, the companies had reported in October that molnupiravir was 50% effective.

Molnupiravir, and another experimental antiviral from Pfizer Inc. PFE -2.96% that is also under FDA review, promise to fill a big gap in Covid-19 treatment for a pill that people could easily take at home to keep them out of the hospital.”

Large, accelerated filers tend to release bad news on a Friday to avoid the high new cycle.

Then there is this:

FREE DUMB

"Red states are now paying people not to get vaccinated

By Catherine Rampell

11/29/21 at 6:27 p.m. EST

Once upon a time, states debated whether to pay people to get vaccinated. Now, some red states are paying people not to get vaccinated, by cutting checks to workers who quit or are fired because they refuse covid-19 shots.

All spring and summer, Republicans cried bloody murder about how too-generous unemployment benefits were supposedly discouraging Americans from returning to work. Expanded jobless benefits were creating welfare queens, they argued, and driving labor shortages and hurting small businesses.

As I wrote at the time, it seemed reasonable to believe that at least for some workers, jobless benefits were a factor weighed when deciding whether to accept or reject available jobs. But lots of other factors mattered, too — including child-care availability, fear of getting ill, transit problems, changing family priorities, the wages offered and burnout.

Ultimately, those other factors seemed to matter more. Expanded pandemic benefits ended, first in a few GOP-controlled states (over the summer) and eventually nationwide (in September). Their lapse appeared to have little impact on job growth.

That didn’t stop some Republican politicians from continuing to blame labor shortages on unemployment benefits even after the offending federal programs had expired nationwide. Their talking point long outlasted its plausible relevance.

Now, Republicans are expanding these laziness-inducing benefits once again — but only for workers who refuse shots.

At least four states — Florida, Iowa, Kansas and Tennessee — have recently extended benefits to workers who are fired or quit over their employers’ vaccine requirements. For context, workers who are fired for cause or who quit voluntarily are usually not eligible to receive unemployment benefits. With limited exceptions, only those laid off through no fault of their own have been able to receive such aid.

Incidentally, most of the states implementing this new policy had earlier rejected calls from President Biden to use federal relief funds to issue $100 payments to inoculated individuals. Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R), for instance, said this summer that it wasn’t “the role of government” to financially incentivize vaccines.

At least not vaccines for humans, anyway. Over the past two years, Tennessee has sent almost half a million dollars to farmers for vaccinating their cattle against various ailments, according to the Associated Press. So, apparently, that’s an appropriate role for government.

Incentivizing Americans to refuse coronavirus vaccines is not pro-life. It’s not small-government. It’s not pro-growth. And it’s not pro-personal responsibility.

So why are Republicans doing it?

A recent report from Axios argues that these policy changes are primarily about building “loyalty with unvaccinated Americans”: “Republicans see a prime opportunity to rally their base ahead of the midterms,” Axios reports.

Maybe that’s true. Maybe this is about showing important political constituencies that Republicans have their backs. There have also been some examples of officials in bluer areas refusing to confront their anti-vaccine allies, and sometimes even effectively paying them not to get shots, as well. A Nevada school district, for example, paid public workers overtime to get tested regularly if they refused coronavirus vaccines.

But building solidarity with fellow culture warriors isn’t the only benefit for Republicans.

These policies also undermine federal efforts to get the pandemic under control, which the right then blames Biden for not controlling. They also might help sabotage the economic recovery, which the right will also blame Biden for not sufficiently juicing. Of course, the magnitude of the economic effect of these unemployment-benefit policies alone may be tiny, at least based on that recent experience with other unemployment benefit expansions. But that’s not what Republicans have said they believe.

And remember, these unemployment benefit expansions are just one among many anti-vaccine actions Republicans have taken.

There’s been some debate on the left about whether the GOP’s covid denialism is simply misguided or whether it is driven by a cynical attempt to sink the economy. On the one hand, as New York magazine’s Jonathan Chait has observed, Republicans have trashed efforts to mitigate covid (shutdowns, mask-wearing) as far back as early 2020, when President Donald Trump was still in office.

On the other hand: Since then, 777,000 Americans have died of the illness, and we’ve developed an economically painless tool — vaccination — to save lives. A tool developed under Trump, no less! GOP politicians and right-wing media have sown suspicion in this miraculous measure all the same. Some also seem to be openly cheering for an economic crash. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), for example, recently described the prospect of unfavorable economic conditions next year as a “gold mine” for his party heading into the midterms.

Whatever their motivation, Republicans seem to be rooting for the virus — and against the country."

#darwinismworks
 

Captain Brainstorm

Well-Known Member
Here is a snippet from the weekend edition of the WSJ regarding molnupiravir, which got lost in the Omicron news of the week:

“The FDA said it is still conducting its review of molnupiravir, after the companies told the agency earlier this week the pill was 30% effective in a final analysis of the late-stage study results. After taking an early look at results, the companies had reported in October that molnupiravir was 50% effective.

Molnupiravir, and another experimental antiviral from Pfizer Inc. PFE -2.96% that is also under FDA review, promise to fill a big gap in Covid-19 treatment for a pill that people could easily take at home to keep them out of the hospital.”

Large, accelerated filers tend to release bad news on a Friday to avoid the high new cycle.

Then there is this:

FREE DUMB

"Red states are now paying people not to get vaccinated

By Catherine Rampell

11/29/21 at 6:27 p.m. EST

Once upon a time, states debated whether to pay people to get vaccinated. Now, some red states are paying people not to get vaccinated, by cutting checks to workers who quit or are fired because they refuse covid-19 shots.

All spring and summer, Republicans cried bloody murder about how too-generous unemployment benefits were supposedly discouraging Americans from returning to work. Expanded jobless benefits were creating welfare queens, they argued, and driving labor shortages and hurting small businesses.

As I wrote at the time, it seemed reasonable to believe that at least for some workers, jobless benefits were a factor weighed when deciding whether to accept or reject available jobs. But lots of other factors mattered, too — including child-care availability, fear of getting ill, transit problems, changing family priorities, the wages offered and burnout.

Ultimately, those other factors seemed to matter more. Expanded pandemic benefits ended, first in a few GOP-controlled states (over the summer) and eventually nationwide (in September). Their lapse appeared to have little impact on job growth.

That didn’t stop some Republican politicians from continuing to blame labor shortages on unemployment benefits even after the offending federal programs had expired nationwide. Their talking point long outlasted its plausible relevance.

Now, Republicans are expanding these laziness-inducing benefits once again — but only for workers who refuse shots.

At least four states — Florida, Iowa, Kansas and Tennessee — have recently extended benefits to workers who are fired or quit over their employers’ vaccine requirements. For context, workers who are fired for cause or who quit voluntarily are usually not eligible to receive unemployment benefits. With limited exceptions, only those laid off through no fault of their own have been able to receive such aid.

Incidentally, most of the states implementing this new policy had earlier rejected calls from President Biden to use federal relief funds to issue $100 payments to inoculated individuals. Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R), for instance, said this summer that it wasn’t “the role of government” to financially incentivize vaccines.

At least not vaccines for humans, anyway. Over the past two years, Tennessee has sent almost half a million dollars to farmers for vaccinating their cattle against various ailments, according to the Associated Press. So, apparently, that’s an appropriate role for government.

Incentivizing Americans to refuse coronavirus vaccines is not pro-life. It’s not small-government. It’s not pro-growth. And it’s not pro-personal responsibility.

So why are Republicans doing it?

A recent report from Axios argues that these policy changes are primarily about building “loyalty with unvaccinated Americans”: “Republicans see a prime opportunity to rally their base ahead of the midterms,” Axios reports.

Maybe that’s true. Maybe this is about showing important political constituencies that Republicans have their backs. There have also been some examples of officials in bluer areas refusing to confront their anti-vaccine allies, and sometimes even effectively paying them not to get shots, as well. A Nevada school district, for example, paid public workers overtime to get tested regularly if they refused coronavirus vaccines.

But building solidarity with fellow culture warriors isn’t the only benefit for Republicans.

These policies also undermine federal efforts to get the pandemic under control, which the right then blames Biden for not controlling. They also might help sabotage the economic recovery, which the right will also blame Biden for not sufficiently juicing. Of course, the magnitude of the economic effect of these unemployment-benefit policies alone may be tiny, at least based on that recent experience with other unemployment benefit expansions. But that’s not what Republicans have said they believe.

And remember, these unemployment benefit expansions are just one among many anti-vaccine actions Republicans have taken.

There’s been some debate on the left about whether the GOP’s covid denialism is simply misguided or whether it is driven by a cynical attempt to sink the economy. On the one hand, as New York magazine’s Jonathan Chait has observed, Republicans have trashed efforts to mitigate covid (shutdowns, mask-wearing) as far back as early 2020, when President Donald Trump was still in office.

On the other hand: Since then, 777,000 Americans have died of the illness, and we’ve developed an economically painless tool — vaccination — to save lives. A tool developed under Trump, no less! GOP politicians and right-wing media have sown suspicion in this miraculous measure all the same. Some also seem to be openly cheering for an economic crash. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), for example, recently described the prospect of unfavorable economic conditions next year as a “gold mine” for his party heading into the midterms.

Whatever their motivation, Republicans seem to be rooting for the virus — and against the country."

#darwinismworks
The political bullshit aside, 30-50% effective for a pivotal trial kind of sucks. I couldn't follow your link but found articles elsewhere. If these drugs were for any disease other than COVID, those results would be unacceptable for an FDA submission, but I guess since this is COVID we'll take anything anyone tells us to and the media deems safe and effective.
 

jShort

2018 Fantasy Football Toilet Bowl Lead Technician
Team MTBNJ Halter's
The political bullshit aside, 30-50% effective for a pivotal trial kind of sucks. I couldn't follow your link but found articles elsewhere. If these drugs were for any disease other than COVID, those results would be unacceptable for an FDA submission, but I guess since this is COVID we'll take anything anyone tells us to and the media deems safe and effective.
They probably want to get the government reimbursement on the r&d so they need to submit for approval.


I didn’t read any of the other post or the links mentioned.
 
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