This Thread Blows - C19 and beyond

jimvreeland said:
No. But it is a choice. Like anything else. If you willingly expose yourself to the Public, you're willing to catch Covid, by choice. If they said the McRib was made out of Covid it wouldn't stop a single person from Ordering it.
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I'm about to get tested for the 2nd time because my office is in a minor outbreak. That's basically the only place I expose myself to people aside from grocery shopping and passing people on trails. I don't personally consider going to work a choice. Didn't see a single family member this holiday season aside from dropping off presents and waving.
 
shrpshtr325 said:
@rick81721 & @Patrick

cite your sources for the how many its killed claim (i may have missed it in here, but the 17/1000 seems high from what iv been hearing/seeing in the news, maybe 17/1000 that get hospitalized?!?!?)
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from worldometers in the US

1609248174742.png

19.7M confirmed 343k dead.
.343/19.7 = .017

we then say confirmed is actually a proxy of those who had it (dead is also a proxy, but that is a tougher arg)
I claim double - with no evidence other than I think that it is reasonable. -> 8/1000
rick claims quadruple or better - because they test dialysis patients and blood donors (serological tests). -> 4/1000
who are not a random sample of actual people.
 
cassinonorth said:
I'm about to get tested for the 2nd time because my office is in a minor outbreak. That's basically the only place I expose myself to people aside from grocery shopping and passing people on trails. I don't personally consider going to work a choice. Didn't see a single family member this holiday season aside from dropping off presents and waving.
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We have a guy out now in Quarantine. We have the door locked and tell everyone that wants to come in, they choose if they want to risk exposure or do Curbside. Which is probably the same exposure, just outside. The rules are all silly and that's why the lockdown never worked.
 
rick81721 said:
CDC says yes, closer to 30%. But what do they know?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

Oops, correction - above was thru September, so well over 30% by now.
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that's compelling. i'm not sure why they would need to estimate hospitalizations - except to cross check with actuals.

since they do not estimate the mortality rate, it can not be applied straight-up.
the highest un-reported multipliers are in the least likely to die if infected age groups.
 
30% of the people who have died are from nursing homes, so I would say it's not always a choice. To @Mahnken's point, maybe I should just talk to my dog. At least he will lick me in the face when I'm done as opposed to kicking me in the Internet balls and telling me how wrong I am.

@Patrick I have an idea to add to your home graph. What we need is a time graph of Covid cases by day overlaid with a time graph of vaccines given in total. So the vaccine graph will rise in some (presumably) linear fashion and one would hope the Covid graphs would fall in an inverse proportion trend. Then after a month you can stick an arrow on the covid line and see where it points on the timeline.

And then I will feel better about going back out to get my McRib sandwich.
 
Norm said:
30% of the people who have died are from nursing homes, so I would say it's not always a choice. To @Mahnken's point, maybe I should just talk to my dog. At least he will lick me in the face when I'm done as opposed to kicking me in the Internet balls and telling me how wrong I am.

@Patrick I have an idea to add to your home graph. What we need is a time graph of Covid cases by day overlaid with a time graph of vaccines given in total. So the vaccine graph will rise in some (presumably) linear fashion and one would hope the Covid graphs would fall in an inverse proportion trend. Then after a month you can stick an arrow on the covid line and see where it points on the timeline.

And then I will feel better about going back out to get my McRib sandwich.
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I don't know what the internet is there for if not to tell you you're wrong.

I don't eat meat, but my fast food junky friend said the mcrib is garbage. I don't remember ever having one in my younger years, surprisingly.
 
rick81721 said:
Of course it can. The number of deaths is fairly accurate.
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i gotta think about it. if the undiagnosed in the low mortality group is 10x more than the undiagnosed in the high mortality group,
and the groups are not the same size, can I use the average for estimated overall mortality?

Norm said:
And then I will feel better about going back out to get my McRib sandwich.
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looking forward to March for my shamrock shake.
 
Norm said:
30% of the people who have died are from nursing homes, so I would say it's not always a choice. To @Mahnken's point, maybe I should just talk to my dog. At least he will lick me in the face when I'm done as opposed to kicking me in the Internet balls and telling me how wrong I am.

@Patrick I have an idea to add to your home graph. What we need is a time graph of Covid cases by day overlaid with a time graph of vaccines given in total. So the vaccine graph will rise in some (presumably) linear fashion and one would hope the Covid graphs would fall in an inverse proportion trend. Then after a month you can stick an arrow on the covid line and see where it points on the timeline.

And then I will feel better about going back out to get my McRib sandwich.
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According to the news, Nurses are now slaying their second round of elderly people. Now armed with a Vaccine to bring the numbers up even higher. I guess they didn't get the memo from the first round?
 
I haven't gotten tested yet.
My friend Mike and his wife got tested last week, both tested positive, symptoms are no taste or smell for both of them.

My friend Ed got tested a few days ago, positive, symptoms are sneezing, coughing.

My friend Rodger got tested two days ago, positive, no symptoms whatsoever.

My Friend Jo-ann got tested two days ago, positive, symptoms are same as a regular cold.

None of these people are sick enough to stop doing what they normally do every day. So quarantine for 14 days right?
Then what, they're not contagious anymore?
You can't tell when you became contagious either, could have been ten days ago for all you know.
Since I never got tested, maybe I'm positive with no symptoms.
Maybe I was positive and got over it 16 days ago. Too many maybe's to try and figure out.
How often to get tested? Once positive, get tested again in two weeks?
 
jimvreeland said:
If we were smart there wouldn't be a second wave.
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And there it is. Or a third wave. Or a surge on a surge. Or people equating public health and protecting our neighbors to be "infringement of my personal liberties" Or travel cause you know, "Its Christmas after all!".

look at 3 countries who were fanatical about social distancing, PPE, Contact tracing and TESTING since the spring: (all numbers from Johns Hopkins COVID Map).
New Zealand Cases 2151 Deaths 25 = 1.2% mortality
Vietnam Cases 1454 Deaths 35 = 2.4%
South Korea Cases 58725 Deaths 859 = 1.5%

Theyre not seeing all cases in the country, meaning the mortality is likely significantly lower, but theyre probably not seeing all COVID deaths either In the study below, conclusion is that we probably missed attributable deaths in the spring. :

Reported COVID death numbers are significantly lower than actual death numbers: Look at excess mortality surveys around the world (https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/03...-gives-clearer-picture-pandemics-true-burden/)
1609262740192.png1609262789485.png

COVID death figures are reports based on criteria in each individual area. Some include only COVID test positive patients, some presumed, some by cause of death.
In the article below, the New York numbers are capturing about 70% of actual COVID caused deaths.

Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020​

Daniel M. Weinberger, PhD1; Jenny Chen, BS2; Ted Cohen, MD, DPH1; et alForrest W. Crawford, PhD3,4; Farzad Mostashari, MD5; Don Olson, MPH6; Virginia E. Pitzer, ScD1; Nicholas G. Reich, PhD7; Marcus Russi, BS1; Lone Simonsen, PhD8; Anne Watkins, BS1; Cecile Viboud, PhD2
Author Affiliations Article Information
JAMA Intern Med. 2020;180(10):1336-1344. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.3391



So any discussion about the true mortality is open to significant error and guesswork at this early stage. So is seroprevalence of antibodies and "how many were really infected"
For perspective, the flu mortality including penumonia is 0.018% (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm)

So a lot of us are still susceptible and its freaking dangerous.
 
Kaleidopete said:
I haven't gotten tested yet.
My friend Mike and his wife got tested last week, both tested positive, symptoms are no taste or smell for both of them.

My friend Ed got tested a few days ago, positive, symptoms are sneezing, coughing.

My friend Rodger got tested two days ago, positive, no symptoms whatsoever.

My Friend Jo-ann got tested two days ago, positive, symptoms are same as a regular cold.

None of these people are sick enough to stop doing what they normally do every day. So quarantine for 14 days right?
Then what, they're not contagious anymore?
You can't tell when you became contagious either, could have been ten days ago for all you know.
Since I never got tested, maybe I'm positive with no symptoms.
Maybe I was positive and got over it 16 days ago. Too many maybe's to try and figure out.
How often to get tested? Once positive, get tested again in two weeks?
Click to expand...

www.cdc.gov

COVID-19 and Your Health

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

www.cdc.gov

COVID-19 and Your Health

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov
 
Kaleidopete said:
I haven't gotten tested yet.
My friend Mike and his wife got tested last week, both tested positive, symptoms are no taste or smell for both of them.

My friend Ed got tested a few days ago, positive, symptoms are sneezing, coughing.

My friend Rodger got tested two days ago, positive, no symptoms whatsoever.

My Friend Jo-ann got tested two days ago, positive, symptoms are same as a regular cold.

None of these people are sick enough to stop doing what they normally do every day. So quarantine for 14 days right?
Then what, they're not contagious anymore?
You can't tell when you became contagious either, could have been ten days ago for all you know.
Since I never got tested, maybe I'm positive with no symptoms.
Maybe I was positive and got over it 16 days ago. Too many maybe's to try and figure out.
How often to get tested? Once positive, get tested again in two weeks?
Click to expand...

If you don't get tested every week it's because you hate everyone. J/K no one cares enough to actually get tested like we're supposed to.
 
Patrick said:
i gotta think about it. if the undiagnosed in the low mortality group is 10x more than the undiagnosed in the high mortality group,
and the groups are not the same size, can I use the average for estimated overall mortality?
Click to expand...

Let's use your logic for the 2019 flu season: 168,000 lab diagnosed cases, 34,000 deaths = 20% infection mortality rate!
 
krink said:
And there it is. Or a third wave. Or a surge on a surge. Or people equating public health and protecting our neighbors to be "infringement of my personal liberties" Or travel cause you know, "Its Christmas after all!".

look at 3 countries who were fanatical about social distancing, PPE, Contact tracing and TESTING since the spring: (all numbers from Johns Hopkins COVID Map).
New Zealand Cases 2151 Deaths 25 = 1.2% mortality
Vietnam Cases 1454 Deaths 35 = 2.4%
South Korea Cases 58725 Deaths 859 = 1.5%
Click to expand...

It's silly to compare a tiny, isolated island nation like New Zealand to anyone. Show me one EU country that avoided a second/third wave. Look at Japan, now in their 3rd wave.
 
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