qclabrat
Well-Known Member
yeah that or whether Lebron or Michael are the all time, need to find some good podcasts at work
I might even turn on the French Open this weekend...
The MetsThread
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I might even turn on the French Open this weekend...
Juggernaut
Master of the Metaphor
“In” might be an overly generous term. It’s more like “Stuck”.
qclabrat
Well-Known Member
agreed, 8 strong innings, but nothing from Mets bats for 7 innings
Really haven't watched much this year, even early when they were ahead
qclabrat
Well-Known Member
did you stay? I'm sold on leaving after the 7th for every game, too damn painful after all these years. Get the final the next day, really helps with nerves
Yeah, amazin.... got a believe, also DONE
always stay. for the most pain.
Juggernaut
Master of the Metaphor
Honestly, this could have been taken anytime w/in the last 20 years.........
What the f#ck is wrong with me?
What the f#ck is wrong with me?
qclabrat
Well-Known Member
next time I'll save you the waste of time
Will ring your bell before a game, kick you in the nuts then leave, might even raid your fridge first....
chipper come out of retirement to pad his numbers?
1speed
Incredibly profound yet fantastically flawed
As I mentioned last week, I had a bet with my brother about whether the Mets would get above .500 again this season. Last week, I was still clutching to the very tiny threads of irrational hope that they could pull this off. But after getting home from my regular Tuesday ride last night and seeing that they had once again lost, I decided to do a bit of math to see just how stupid the concept of hope is with this team.
I realize this isn't a perfect analysis and that the primary assumptions on the probability of winning any individual game is not a constant and I'm missing the factors that make it variable, but even considering that I don't think the resulting probabilities would significantly change the outcome here.
Basically, what I wanted to do was figure out the probability that they reach just one game above .500 at any point the rest of the season. They have 99 games left after yesterday, and their current record is 28-35, for a .444 winning percentage. If I assume their current winning percentage is a suitable proxy for their probability of winning any single game, then I'm looking at a binomial distribution B(N, 0.444) for the probability of them winning enough games to be one game over .500 after N games. The parameters of this exercise: obviously, they can only get to 1 game over on an odd number of games, and they can't do it for the first time until they've minimally played 8 more games since they are currently 7 games under. (And, by the way, given a winning percentage of .444, the probability of them winning the next 8 games in a row based on that alone is vanishingly small - about 0.0015.) Overall, the probability never even gets to 2% (it hits a maximum of around 1.8% at the 105th game.) So even if I could get the data to identify the actual probability of winning on any day from here out, I seriously doubt it would change the numbers enough to even get me close to 50-50 at any point.
The x-axis here is the number of games played since yesterday (e.g., since they have played 63 games as of this morning, the 105th game of the season would correspond to 42 in the x-axis above.)
So, given the last point in my previous message was the all together reasonable assumption that the Mets were equally willing to fuck over my brother as they were me, I think it's now becoming more and more obvious that they've made their choice and it's me who is getting a proper dicking from the Metropolitans this time around.
I realize this isn't a perfect analysis and that the primary assumptions on the probability of winning any individual game is not a constant and I'm missing the factors that make it variable, but even considering that I don't think the resulting probabilities would significantly change the outcome here.
Basically, what I wanted to do was figure out the probability that they reach just one game above .500 at any point the rest of the season. They have 99 games left after yesterday, and their current record is 28-35, for a .444 winning percentage. If I assume their current winning percentage is a suitable proxy for their probability of winning any single game, then I'm looking at a binomial distribution B(N, 0.444) for the probability of them winning enough games to be one game over .500 after N games. The parameters of this exercise: obviously, they can only get to 1 game over on an odd number of games, and they can't do it for the first time until they've minimally played 8 more games since they are currently 7 games under. (And, by the way, given a winning percentage of .444, the probability of them winning the next 8 games in a row based on that alone is vanishingly small - about 0.0015.) Overall, the probability never even gets to 2% (it hits a maximum of around 1.8% at the 105th game.) So even if I could get the data to identify the actual probability of winning on any day from here out, I seriously doubt it would change the numbers enough to even get me close to 50-50 at any point.
The x-axis here is the number of games played since yesterday (e.g., since they have played 63 games as of this morning, the 105th game of the season would correspond to 42 in the x-axis above.)
So, given the last point in my previous message was the all together reasonable assumption that the Mets were equally willing to fuck over my brother as they were me, I think it's now becoming more and more obvious that they've made their choice and it's me who is getting a proper dicking from the Metropolitans this time around.
Juggernaut
Master of the Metaphor
So you’re like......
Mr. E Man
Well-Known Member
Reyes batting %.... my gaaawdddd
Juggernaut
Master of the Metaphor
I believe you meant, when Sandy’s out the door....It’s a win.
Now we’ve got the three headed retread ruining, I mean running, things.
“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
Courage to change the things I can,
And wisdom to know the difference.”
......It’s not working.
