Not sure if this is the way to interpret what is happening if we're going to see things go more toward what they were for all those years prior to the creation of the large consolidated manufacturers. What may happen instead of what Koch is saying is that beer goes back to being very local - no distribution of smaller manufacturers beyond a very small radius around their enterprise. I say that because I already see evidence of it happening - the model for "success" for a lot of local breweries is not the traditional model of national distribution - it's exclusivity in a specific area. For example, take Tired Hands in Ardmore, PA. They do a can release every Wednesday, and they have lines of rabid fans who spread several blocks (regardless of weather -- I was there two weeks ago to meet a buddy who drove out from York for the release and there were people standing on line four blocks away int he pouring rain.) And I hear that sort of thing is happening all over. Indeed, these small batch craft breweries have created their own economy without intending to do so -- there are people willing to drive pretty far to get their hands on small batch releases because they've become currency online - "I'll ship you a six of 'Shape of Hops to Come' if you send me a bomber bottle of Russian River." Of course that's just anecdotal, and there is still the sourcing issue to overcome (although I could imagine that small batch makers could easily survive as a niche market for hops, etc providers since they are all but guaranteed to sell out.) If I were to hazard a guess, I think Koch's viewpoint is a bit overly pessimistic because his brewery is actually sitting in a unique place where the current situation is more likely to hurt him -- Sam Adams is too big to be int he same category as many of the small batch makers that have made the American landscape so good over the last decade. I think the small nimble makers like Tired Hands, or Neshaminy, and especially more local makers like Round Guys, Prism, Kane, Carton, Broken Goblet, or Doylestown could be just fine as long as they recognize and respect their true niches: local, rabid fans and word of mouth. It may not be a road to wealth or a billion dollar valuation, but it's still a better career than most of us can claim!