Your next bike just got a lot more expensive

Xler8

Well-Known Member
As if bikes and bike stuff wasn’t pricey enough already. Be interesting to see how all this unfolds.
 

The Kalmyk

Well-Known Member
As if bikes and bike stuff wasn’t pricey enough already. Be interesting to see how all this unfolds.


Yas!

Called for pricing on a new bike today. Shared what I would like to spend- lol.

Sounded cute but I really had no clue what pricing is like nowadays.
 

one piece crank

Well-Known Member
I hear you loud and clear. I just bought a new bike, first complete I didn’t build myself (last build was 2008). I seem to recall that thousands of dollars used to buy you a hand built frame, spec’d out as you saw fit. Below that price were “budget” builds of various $-level off-shore origins. When did thousands of dollars equate to a Chinese frame/bike?
 

jdog

Shop: Halter's Cycles
Shop Keep
What I am hearing from my vendors is that they are scared. The way this looks to be shaking out is a 10% tariff on most bikes and frames made in china starting next monday. If China does not bow to Trump's demands, this will bump to 25% on Jan 1st 2019.

Most of the brands are now scrambling to have their goods made in Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil, .. etc.. These potentially lesser factories will do their best to keep up with demand and match the high quality Chinese bike goods we have grown to love.

It is more likely than not that this will created a shortage in supply (for the us market) which in return could spike demand and in return prices.

One possible result is higher prices paired with lower quality.

Since the bike market is indeed global, most of what China builds for the bike industry will continue forward minus the bikes destined for the USA.
 

Patrick

Overthinking the draft from the basement already
Staff member
if there was a global shortage, it wouldn't take tariffs to raise prices.

if they ship fewer bikes to the US, and create a local shortage, a shop may sell fewer bikes, but they will be at a higher margin,
because of the laws of supply and demand.

capitalism says if there is a void, someone will step-in to fill it.
 

jdog

Shop: Halter's Cycles
Shop Keep
if there was a global shortage, it wouldn't take tariffs to raise prices.

if they ship fewer bikes to the US, and create a local shortage, a shop may sell fewer bikes, but they will be at a higher margin,
because of the laws of supply and demand.

capitalism says if there is a void, someone will step-in to fill it.

This is certainly a possibility, but not one that I’ve heard from anyone in the Bike industry thus far. Thus far it’s closer to a panic.

The bike industry in general has been in a nose dive since 13-14’. The bright light seems to be e-bikes, but that might be cut short with any increase in cost.
 

Monkey Soup

Angry Wanker
What I am hearing from my vendors is that they are scared. The way this looks to be shaking out is a 10% tariff on most bikes and frames made in china starting next monday. If China does not bow to Trump's demands, this will bump to 25% on Jan 1st 2019.

Most of the brands are now scrambling to have their goods made in Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil, .. etc.. These potentially lesser factories will do their best to keep up with demand and match the high quality Chinese bike goods we have grown to love.

It is more likely than not that this will created a shortage in supply (for the us market) which in return could spike demand and in return prices.

One possible result is higher prices paired with lower quality.

Since the bike market is indeed global, most of what China builds for the bike industry will continue forward minus the bikes destined for the USA.

I think that whoever is telling you this is bullshitting you, trying to sweep you up in the hype, which if you look at click-bait websites like Pinkbike, etc. they're doing a pretty good job. First, I'd find it hard to believe that anyone with half a brain for business sense is "scrambling" last minute to move an entire manufacturing operation and its embedded supply chain to a new location last minute, especially given the time it took to qualify Taiwan/China and convince us all that our bikes are made by skilled labor (not sweatshop) and craftsmen equivalent to whats made in the US. Even if you could find a supplier who could make your product turn-key, it would still take a tremendous amount of time and resources to validate and qualify production to make a product that met your existing standards. If anyone is indeed moving, it was carefully planned months and months ago. If anything, people are mapping out their contingencies and performing their due-diligence now. Second, given the volatility and gamesmanship of this trade war, I'd hazard to guess that most business are waiting to see how this shakes out instead of investing the large amount of resources required to qualify a new supplier. Also, there are probably other ways to get around this instead of moving operations since there are always loopholes in import/export laws and process.
 

littlev21

Active Member
I'm not buying that statement one bit. Seems politically motivated and not at all related to being honest or forthcoming w/ pricing.

Someone should also screen shot all of bike manufacturers msrp's on their websites. I'd guarantee there won't be a 10% increase this time next month compared to what it is today.


"Seems politically motivated and not at all related to being honest or forthcoming" a bunch of that going on nowadays......
 

one piece crank

Well-Known Member
Don't take my word for it. Here's what Dorel (owns Cannondale and other bike brands) is telling inventors: "…proposed tariffs recently announced in the U.S. would impact a significant number of our product categories, and is creating business uncertainty. However, our competition will be similarly affected as we will all be required to adjust pricing upwards and higher costs will ultimately be passed on to consumers."

None of them will miss THIS golden opportunity, even if a trade solution is reached and the tariffs go away.
 

rick81721

Lothar
I think that whoever is telling you this is bullshitting you, trying to sweep you up in the hype, which if you look at click-bait websites like Pinkbike, etc. they're doing a pretty good job. First, I'd find it hard to believe that anyone with half a brain for business sense is "scrambling" last minute to move an entire manufacturing operation and its embedded supply chain to a new location last minute, especially given the time it took to qualify Taiwan/China and convince us all that our bikes are made by skilled labor (not sweatshop) and craftsmen equivalent to whats made in the US. Even if you could find a supplier who could make your product turn-key, it would still take a tremendous amount of time and resources to validate and qualify production to make a product that met your existing standards. If anyone is indeed moving, it was carefully planned months and months ago. If anything, people are mapping out their contingencies and performing their due-diligence now. Second, given the volatility and gamesmanship of this trade war, I'd hazard to guess that most business are waiting to see how this shakes out instead of investing the large amount of resources required to qualify a new supplier. Also, there are probably other ways to get around this instead of moving operations since there are always loopholes in import/export laws and process.

Yeah it takes years and mucho dinero to relocate manufacturing and its associated supply chain.
 

The Kalmyk

Well-Known Member
I think that whoever is telling you this is bullshitting you, trying to sweep you up in the hype, which if you look at click-bait websites like Pinkbike, etc. they're doing a pretty good job. First, I'd find it hard to believe that anyone with half a brain for business sense is "scrambling" last minute to move an entire manufacturing operation and its embedded supply chain to a new location last minute, especially given the time it took to qualify Taiwan/China and convince us all that our bikes are made by skilled labor (not sweatshop) and craftsmen equivalent to whats made in the US. Even if you could find a supplier who could make your product turn-key, it would still take a tremendous amount of time and resources to validate and qualify production to make a product that met your existing standards. If anyone is indeed moving, it was carefully planned months and months ago. If anything, people are mapping out their contingencies and performing their due-diligence now. Second, given the volatility and gamesmanship of this trade war, I'd hazard to guess that most business are waiting to see how this shakes out instead of investing the large amount of resources required to qualify a new supplier. Also, there are probably other ways to get around this instead of moving operations since there are always loopholes in import/export laws and process.


All good points. Our company is a major manufacturer out of China and no loop holes in import/export known as of yet.

The bike guys wouldn't move all their manufacturing to other countries for reasons of fault tolerance- I don't have to be a fly on the wall to know that.
 

qclabrat

Well-Known Member
if there was a global shortage, it wouldn't take tariffs to raise prices.

if they ship fewer bikes to the US, and create a local shortage, a shop may sell fewer bikes, but they will be at a higher margin,
because of the laws of supply and demand.

capitalism says if there is a void, someone will step-in to fill it.
Bikes and bike parts are not rocket science but still not t-shirts and jeans. My mom was in the garment industry and saw how work moved to China then later to Bangladesh and Eastern Europe. Quality was so terrible for items sourced from those parts of the world when compared to China. Remember when made in Japan and China was considered inferior? It will take a decade or two before we see another industrial giant emerge. China is moving away from manufacturing, almost all of my new vendors are now from China doing development, support and service oriented jobs.
 

Ian F

Well-Known Member
next bike cant get more expensive if you cant afford a new bike anyway
09-roll-safe.w700.h700.jpg

MAGA supporters couldn't give two shits about the price of bicycles that cost more than their cars.
 

rick81721

Lothar
Look up American Beryllium.not quite 65k but inflation considered, it’s damn close. I thought is was a typo when I saw the frame price. It was In one of those full page supplier ads back in the day- yes 1993 is back in the day.

Trek Butterfly Madone - half a mill!

44-Damien-Hirst-“Butterfly”-Trek-Madone.jpg
 
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